There was no interaction between gender and time, but there was an interaction between time and age. The interactive association of age and gender, independently, was fitted with time to check whether there were differential infection rates. This was used for assessment of the effects of lockdown on the AR. 1).Ī logistic regression model with outcome testing, positive being 1 and negative being 0, was fitted for time, age and gender. The AR (the percentage of individuals who tested positive over a specified time period) was further analysed over four time periods: (i) pre-lockdown (5-31 March) (ii) lockdown level 5 (1 - 30 April) (Hi) lock-down level 4 (1 - 31 May) and (iv) lock-down level 3 (1 - 30 June) ( Fig. The AR was significantly higher in males (13.2%) compared with females (12.1%) (x2test, p60 years). The increase in June was seen in all the age groups, although it was more pronounced in the 21-60 years age groups than the younger (0 - 20 years) and older (>60 years) age groups. There was an exponential increase in the AR in June (18.3%) when lockdown was eased to level 3, in comparison with 4.2% (March), 2.2% (April) and 3.3% (May). Sixty-two percent of all tests were done in June during lockdown level 3. These positive tests constituted 44.8% of all positive cases in the province (20 574/45 944). A total of 162 528 tests were performed at a private laboratory between 5 March and 30 June 2020, of which 20 574 were positive (overall AR 12.7%). The ARs are reported over time (unweighted and age-weighted 14-day moving averages) by age groups, gender, and different regions/districts in Gauteng. We analysed trends of positivity rates of reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction tests done during the 4-month period. In this retrospective cohort study, we used a comprehensive database from an independent pathology laboratory in Gauteng. To measure the effects of lockdown measures introduced in SA on SARS-CoV-2 attack rates (ARs, the percentage of individuals who tested positive in a specified time period) in Gauteng Province during a 4-month period (March - June 2020). In this article, we analyse the effects of the lockdown measures on the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in one of the epicentres in SA. The effect of lockdown measures on SARS-CoV-2 infectivity is currently uncertain. On 26 March 2020, the South African (SA) government initiated a 21 -day national level 5 lockdown which was subsequently eased off and downgraded to level 4 on 1 May and to level 3 on 1 June. XIFCPHM, PhD (Med) World Health Organization Collaborating Centre for Social Determinants of Health and Health in All Policies, Pretoria, South AfricaīACKGROUND. XFCPHM, PhD (Med) Department of Public Health Medicine, Steve Biko Academic Hospital and Faculty of Health Sciences, University of Pretoria, South Africa IXMMed (Orth), FCS (SA) (Orth) Gauteng Department of Health, Johannesburg, South Africa VIIIPhD School of Public Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the "Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa VIIPhD Human Sciences Research Council, Pretoria, South Africa VIDCur Gauteng Department of Health, Johannesburg, South Africa VMSc Department of Surgery, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa IVDTech Department of Technology Transfer and Innovation, Durban University of Technology, Durban, South Africa IIIDTech Department of Biomedical Sciences, Faculty of Science, Tshwane University of Technology, Pretoria, South Africa IIMDent Department of Community Dentistry, School of Oral Health Sciences, Sefako Makgatho Health Sciences University, Pretoria, South Africa IFCS CVS (SA) Department of Surgery, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa J Pillai I P Motloba II K S C Motaung III, IV L U Ozougwu V B K Ikalafeng VI E Marinda VII, VIII M Lukhele IX D Basu X, XI The effect of lockdown regulations on SARS-CoV-2 infectivity in Gauteng Province, South Africa
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